As the dust settles after the conclusion of Black Friday on December 3, it's clear that this year's sales event was unlike any other, dubbed "the longest Black Friday in history." The promotional frenzy, spearheaded by Amazon, stretched from November 21 through December 2, providing an unprecedented 12-day window for consumers to snag dealsHowever, other players in the cross-border e-commerce scene escalated the competition with even longer promotional periods; Temu launched its sales extravaganza on October 20, covering an impressive span of 47 days, while AliExpress connected various promotions including Choice Day, Singles’ Day, and Black Friday, culminating in a 36-day bargain bonanzaMeanwhile, TikTok Shop made its mark with a dedicated 19-day promotional event for Black Friday.

The sales results tell a mixed storyAccording to Adobe Analytics, on Black Friday alone, online transactions soared by 10.2% compared to the previous year, reaching a record-breaking $10.8 billion

However, many sellers lamented that this year's event felt “cold and long,” with some reporting order volumes down by 30% to 50% compared to previous years and profits far from satisfactoryThis leads to a pressing question: was this Black Friday truly a success or a disappointment? Where are the dollars going?

Overall, the sentiment around Black Friday trends indicated a striking contrast: while online sales thrived, in-store shopping remained lacklusterMastercard’s spending data revealed a modest growth of 3.4% in total retail sales for Black Friday across the United States, yet online sales surged ahead with a 14.6% increaseInterestingly, physical store sales increased by less than 1% compared to last yearRemarkably, when accounting for inflation, the dynamics shifted—real spending in brick-and-mortar locations could be even lower, with a predicted 8% decline in these sales.

This year's decline in foot traffic isn't an isolated incident

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Historically, Black Friday has been a day synonymous with in-store shoppingIn the past, consumers would line up outside stores from the early hours, eagerly anticipating the massive discountsCyber Monday, on the other hand, was reserved for online shoppingHowever, this year's trends reflect a lasting shift; post-pandemic, consumers showed a marked preference for online shopping, and the frenetic throngs of shoppers at physical stores became a thing of the past.

Data from Sensormatic Solutions indicated that in 2021, foot traffic to U.Sbrick-and-mortar stores decreased by 28.3% compared to the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. Although 2022 showed a slight uptick in customer traffic by 2.9%, it still lagged behind pre-pandemic benchmarksThe trajectory continued into 2023, with an 8.2% decline in shopper visits compared to the previous year.

Adding to the complexities of the Black Friday landscape, newer entrants from China are gradually eating into the market share traditionally dominated by Amazon

Companies like Temu are gaining traction as consumer preferences evolveA recent survey conducted by Modern Retail+ in partnership with Attest revealed that while 80% of consumers still plan to shop on Amazon and 62% on Walmart, Temu has positioned itself as a considerable contender with 21% of consumers indicating they would shop thereThis figure places Temu right behind Target (37%) and Best Buy (24%). Additionally, it’s noteworthy that 24% of Gen Z respondents expressed intentions to shop on Shein this Black Friday, underscoring a shifting consumer base.

As such, media outlets have humorously dubbed the landscape a "Christmas battle" between Amazon, Temu, and Shein, illustrating a clear dynamic change in the e-commerce arena.

The shift in shopper preferences is further reflected in sales data, with platforms like Shein and Temu showing growth during a similar timeline

Data from Earnest showed that in the first half of November 2024, Amazon’s sales stagnated, while Shein and Temu saw impressive growth rates of 16% and 18%, respectivelyAdditionally, the TikTok Shop reported approximately $130 million in gross merchandise value (GMV) for a single day during Black Friday week (November 29), compared to about $33 million during the same time last year—an astounding surge that speaks to the platform's growing influence.

Despite the promising data, the experiences of individual sellers painted a more nuanced pictureWhile macro-level statistics suggested a successful retail event, sellers spoke of a starkly different realityMany expressed frustrations, noting that discounts were made at the expense of profit margins, leading to a conundrum: they felt pressured to offer significant discounts yet struggled to see substantial increases in sales volume

Some reported that, while traffic surged, ad costs also considerably increased, resulting in sales figures that merely equaled regular sales without a dramatic uptick.

This “non-epic” Black Friday could be correlated to the unusually extended promotion period, which may have prompted consumers to engage in more thoughtful shopping behaviorsInstead of the impulsive buying characteristic of shorter sales windows, the longer duration encouraged more deliberation and price comparison, effectively dispersing orders over the entire promotional period rather than clustering on a single dayData from AMZ123 indicated that among sellers surveyed, only 25% saw an increase in sales during the first day of Black Friday, while 40% experienced average traffic levels and 23% reported a decrease in sales.

Nonetheless, a select few sellers did experience remarkable success, with one seller on Amazon's U.S

platform noting a fivefold increase in sales volume by the end of November, drawing attention to the disparities that exist within the marketThe variance among seller performance is likely influenced by the types of products offeredAnalysis from Adobe reveals that toy sales emerged as the main growth driver during Black Friday, with sales skyrocketing by an astounding 622% compared to average daily sales in OctoberOther categories, including jewelry, household appliances, personal care items, clothing, and electronics, also experienced significant surges, each achieving over 300% growth during the event.

Looking ahead to Cyber Monday, Adobe had previously issued optimistic forecasts, raising their prediction for U.Sonline sales to $13.5 billion—up from an initial estimate of $13.2 billionThey also projected that spending from Thanksgiving through Cyber Monday would reach $40.6 billion, reflecting a 7% increase compared to the previous year.

In a rapidly evolving retail ecosystem marked by shifting consumer preferences and unexpected challenges, Black Friday serves as a vital barometer for the overall health of the retail industry