Gold Prices Tumble Sharply
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As the trading day drew to a close in Asia on Wednesday, December 11th, a sudden and dramatic shift rippled through the gold marketWithout any clear warning signs, the price of gold plummeted, reminiscent of a kite severed from its stringAt its lowest point, gold traded at $2,674.69 per ounce, a staggering drop of nearly $30 from the highs reached earlier that daySuch sharp fluctuations in price captured the attention of market observers, prompting a seasoned analyst to delve deep into the technical trends surrounding gold, searching for market signals and potential trends concealed beneath the surface.
The analyst noted a significant shift in the gold market, as prices had gradually retreated from a peak not seen in over two weeksThis downturn was primarily attributed to a mood of caution sweeping over investors ahead of the much-anticipated U.SConsumer Price Index (CPI) report
With speculation rife about the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and whether it would continue its current course, the market was gripped by concernsAdditionally, rising U.Sbond yields bolstered the dollar, putting further pressure on gold prices and intensifying the downward momentum.
Despite these downward forces, the analyst pointed out that ongoing geopolitical tensions and speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts could mitigate the extent of gold's declineMarket participants were keenly aware that geopolitical instability could act as a recession safeguard, as it often drives demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Data was set to be released at 9:30 PM Beijing time on Wednesday, detailing the U.SCPI for NovemberThis report was poised to influence the trajectory of interest rates discussed in the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting scheduled for December 17th to 18th.
In a survey conducted by Dow Jones, economists estimated that the month-over-month CPI for November would rise by around 0.3%, with a year-over-year increase of roughly 2.7%. In comparison, the previous month saw an increase of 0.2% month-over-month and a 2.6% year-over-year rise
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Excluding the more volatile food and energy prices, the core CPI for November was anticipated to retain a 0.3% month-over-month growth rate, consistent with October levels, while the year-over-year increase was projected to stabilize at 3.3%.
According to analysts, CPI data that aligns with expectations is unlikely to obstruct interest rate cuts; however, if the data indicates that inflation's progress has stalled, the likelihood of the Federal Reserve implementing a third consecutive rate cut might diminishUtilizing the FedWatch tool from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, the market currently estimates an over 85% chance that a 25 basis-point rate cut will occur during the upcoming policy meeting.
The critical CPI report set to be released next week may guide the decisions of Federal Reserve policymakers, which, in turn, could impact the dollar and create new momentum for gold prices.
Investors seeking strategies for trading gold were met with insights from the analyst
Technically speaking, gold prices had recently broken through a critical resistance area between $2,650 and $2,655 per ounceThe subsequent upward movement favored bullish traders, and the oscillators on the daily charts were gaining positive momentum, remaining comfortably away from overbought territoryThis indicated a generally positive outlook for gold and suggested that pullbacks might present buying opportunities for those looking to capitalize on recent price behavior.
According to the analyst, these factors could limit gold price declines to around the $2,630 per ounce rangeShould prices breach this area, there could be further slides towards the psychological level of $2,600 per ounceOn the flip side, the analyst noted that if gold were to decisively break above the $2,700 per ounce mark, it might extend its gains towards the $2,720 to $2,722 per ounce barrierThe next resistance level was located near $2,735 per ounce, and a break above this level would indicate that the recent corrective decline from the historic highs in October may have concluded, thereby favoring bullish trading strategies.
This uptrend could propel gold prices up towards resistance levels between $2,758 and $2,760 per ounce, followed by advances towards the $2,770 to $2,772 per ounce range and the psychologically significant $2,790 per ounce level, which represents a record high.
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